Money blog: Global shares plummet; US recession fear; 'huge' potential impact on UK mortgages and energy prices (2024)

Back onto the main news of the day, and some UK consumers could reap benefits from a potential US recession, an analysts has suggested.

Shares have tumbled across the globe today on fears the US economy may not be as robust as it perhaps looked a few weeks ago.

Janet Mui, head of market analysis at investment management firm RBC Brewin Dolphin, has been providing commentary of this story on Sky News this afternoon and says a "confluence of factors that is dragging down the stock market".

Firstly, US job creation was "much lower than analysts expected" in July.

Second, in "the latest US corporate earnings season, quite a few company executives were saying that consumers are seeing more weakness and they're guiding that consumer spending could be slowing down from here".

Ms Mui says this is a "big concern for markets".

Finally, "we have seen some reversal in the very sharp gains in US technology stocks... some analysts are worried about a potential overspending on artificial intelligence investment and the commercialisation and profitability of that".

Nvidia and Apple are among notable fallers in all of this.

Having explained the reasons for the market turbulence, Ms Mui moved on to the potential consequences - and suggested there could be some "positive implications" for consumers.

If the US Fed starts moving interest rates down, the European Central Bank and Bank of England "will certainly feel that pressure to cut interest rates further".

"If you have a floating rate mortgage, you could potentially see more relief down the line.

"And if you're going to remortgage or have a new mortgage, I think you're very likely to be getting a much lower rate."

Ms Mui said two-year swap rates, which the UK mortgage rates are based on, have "fallen very sharply".

Further, she says oil prices have been "plunged" in response to US recession fears.

"I think consumers are likely to see lower petrol prices and potentially benefit from lower energy costs as well."

By Sarah Taaffe-Maguire, business reporter

Back onto our headline story now, and as expected US market values fell when they opened at 2.30pm UK time.

It was, of course, fears over the US economy and performance of US-based companies that started the global sell off on Thursday.

The numbers are big. The Nasdaq fell more than 4%, the S&P 500 more than 3%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) more than 2%.

That S&P fall equalled a roughly £1.87trn wipeout from the combined value of its constituent companies.

The sharp drops seen by the three major indexes at the open are fading a bit.

The Dow is down about 1,000 points now, and the S&P 500 is down less than 2.9%. The Nasdaq, which tracks some of the biggest tech firms, is still facing the worst losses but has pulled back and is currently down less than 3.8%.

It all needs to be taken in some context. Many tech company values had reached new highs in the past few months as investors bet on AI investment. With those company values up, indexes that heavily comprised tech firms, such as the Nasdaq, reached an all-time high less than a month ago. We're seeing sharp falls but they're coming from record highs, in some instances.

There's some good news in all the declines. Oil prices, for example, are the cheapest they've been since December - a barrel of Brent crude oil now costs $76.62.

A popular Cadbury's bar has been disappearing from supermarket shelves due to "temporary supply challenges".

Some of you might have noticed Darkmilk has been increasingly harder to come across...

A spokesperson for Mondelez International, which owns Cadbury, said the company was "working hard" to resolve the issue.

"Cadbury Darkmilk is a core part of our range, and remains popular with consumers," they said.

"We are aware of some temporary supply challenges, which we are working hard to resolve, but we can assure consumers that the product remains widely available across retailers in-store and online."

The 90g bars were reportedly last available in Ocado in late June and have been out of stock in Tesco, Sainsbury's and Asda since last month, according to The Grocer.

The Money team checked each site and found the bars were not available.

At Tesco, the Darkmilk ice creams were also out of stock - but you could purchase a pack of Darkmilk Chocolate Giant Buttons.

The buttons were also available at Ocado, Sainsbury's and Asda.

TikTok Shop is raising its seller fees in the UK from 5% to 9% from 2 September.

Seller fees have not increased since the marketplace was created in 2021, but TikTok Shop says it will "continue to be among the most competitive in the market".

It is also introducing a "seller missions" programme, which will enable UK sellers to reduce their fees if they create a target number of TikTok live or shoppable videos.

There are also plans to launch a co-funded free shipping model on 4 September, which will enable sellers to offer free shipping by sharing part of the cost.

"We strive to provide the best possible experience for our sellers and buyers," said TikTok Shop UK head of operations Jan Wilk.

"This move enables us to invest further in building the marketplace of the future, including improved operations and services to help our sellers succeed.

"The sellers and brands that have the most success on TikTok Shop are those that engage with their community via live and shoppable videos, and we are confident our new initiatives to boost content creation will supercharge sales."

TSB is offering switchers £100 in cash and at least £90 in incentives - but it's worth doing your research before making the move.

The incentive is triple cashback on its Spend and Save accounts worth up to £90, and the choice of a hotel stay, cinema tickets or a subscription to Now TV.

What is TSB like for customers?

Which? says: "TSB came joint 18th out of 21 providers in our annual survey of the best bank and bank accounts, with a customer score of 69%.

"It got average scores for its customer service, how it deals with complaints and its online and mobile banking. It received two stars for its branch and telephone banking service."

What's the small print?

As is usual, you have to use the Current Account Switch Service.

You'll then have to log in to the TSB app and make at least five payments using your debit card before 27 September.

You're ineligible if you've received TSB switching rewards since 1 October 2022 or you're intending to switch from another TSB account.

What other switching deals are on offer?

Barclays is offering £175 free cash, Apple TV subscriptions, Major League Soccer stream and access to a 5.12% saving account to new customers.

To get the offer, you can't have received switch cash from Barclays before.

You must also have two direct debits set up, pay in at least £800 by 30 August 2024, and join its Blue Rewards scheme, which comes with a £5 monthly fee.

The £175 is paid within 28 days of all the criteria being met.

Elsewhere, Co-opwill give you £100 plus £10 cashback for six months and an insurance package.

By Daniel Binns, business reporter

Stock markets around the world have dropped sharply today amid fears the US economy may be heading for a recession.

The UK's FTSE 100 was down more than 2% after the markets opened, while the FTSE 250 fell more than 3%.

Otherexchangesin Europe, including in France, Portugal and Spain, fell by similar levels, while Germany's Dax was down 1%.

It follows much steeper drops in Asia earlier today - and further falls are expected in the US when markets open there later.

Japan's Nikkei 225 share index was down more than 12% at the close on Monday - its biggest fall since "Black Monday" in October 1987. The country's broader Topix index also fell by a similar level.

South Korea's Kospi index dropped more than 9%, while Taiwan's Taiex exchange slipped by 8.4%.

Markets in Singapore, Indonesia, Thailand and the Philippines also fell by around 2% and 3%.

The declines prompted the triggering of circuit breakers - in which the trading of stocks and derivatives is halted for 20 minutes - by some exchanges during the day.

It comes after US jobs market data on Friday came inmuch lower than expected for July, sending the country's stock markets tumbling.

Some 114,000 jobs were created during the month - significantly lower than the 175,000 new roles forecast by Wall Street.

The figure was the weakest since December last year and the second weakest since the start of theCOVID pandemicin the West in March 2020.

Robert Carnell, from financial services firm ING, said: "What we are looking at now is a situation where the market is viewing what's going on in the US macroeconomy as ticking the recession box."

Read the full story here...

Aldi is back with another copycat product, this time launching a dupe for a market leading kefir drink.

The budget supermarket has introduced the drinks under a brand called Beautiful Everyday, which bears a striking resemblance to the Biotful Gut Health's packaging.

However, their latest dupe is not all that it seems - as the Money team understands the drink has been created in collaboration with Biotful, which means the brand will benefit from any sales.

Which all begs the question - what's the difference, other than Aldi's being much, much cheaper? We have taken a look - and asked some nutritionists for their thoughts...

The branding of the two products is almost identical, with similar colours, logos and motifs.

Aldi's costs £1.99 for a 750ml bottle, compared with £3.50 for a litre of Biotiful's branded equivalent.

Nutritionist Gabriela Peaco*ckexplained that kefir contained probiotic cultures, which help digestion, liver detoxification, hormonal balance, and overall health.

She described it as like a "yoghurt on steroids" and recommended incorporating it into your daily routine.

We asked her to compare the two products based on their ingredients list.

Here's what she said:

"When comparing these two kefir brands, Biotiful and Aldi's own brand, it's important to note that their ingredient lists are very similar. However, the Aldi product uses very low-fat milk.

"I prefer Biotiful because it uses milk with proper fat, which is actually very healthy and important for us.

"So, if I had to choose between the two, I would opt for the Biotiful product for its nutritional benefits."

She also noted that kefir was a dairy product and may not be suitable for those following a vegan or dairy-free diet, or those who are lactose intolerant.

BeanieRobinson, a nutritionist from The Health Space, said there were no stark differences between the two products...

"The Aldi one looks like they have used low fat milk, so there are less calories in this Aldi drink," she said.

"It is unclear which particular bacteria strains they have used, as unlike the Biotiful one, it doesn't mention them.

"But the bottom line is that I would say if budget allows, always go for the organic full fat kefir to get the benefits of the fats and the organic milk."

She advised going for the unflavoured versions of the drinks, as the flavoured ones contain additives.

Dr Jibin He, who is a chartered food scientist at Teesside University, said the ingredients in the Biotful drink showed it was a live kefir culture - but suggested a homemade kefir might actually be the best option.

It includes, Bifidobacterium, Lactobacillus Acidophilus, Lactobacillus Casei and Lactobacillus Rhamnosus.

"A quick search reveals that these cultures can also have other probiotic bacteria besides the ones mentioned on the package," he said.

"There may be a difference between people who make kefir traditionally at home versus the commercial version of kefir, which could have different effects."

He explained that research on the benefits of kefir drinks was not conclusive, and for probiotics to have a genuine effect, there must be substantially more bacteria that can survive the journey through the stomach to reach the gut.

Aldi has long been associated with dupe products - you can see a few of its own versions of well-known brands in the photo below...

It has also partnered with brands in the past.

One of its most recent partnerships was with BrewDog, with the two companies working together in 2020 to create the "Anti Establishment IPA".

Every Monday we get an expert to answer your Money Problems or consumer disputes. Find out how to submit yours at the bottom of this post. Today's question is...

I booked online for my son to attend a trampoline session. He didn't want to go and I cancelled a day before the event, in the same week that I booked. They won't give me a refund because I didn't give 14 days' notice. Which is impossible - I booked and cancelled in the same week.

Laley

We asked Money blog regular expert Scott Dixon, from The Complaints Resolver, to take a look at this one.

The law

Scott outlines some legislation that applies in this case:

• S62 Consumer Rights Act 2015has a requirement for contract terms and notices to be fair. An unfair term of a contract is not binding on the consumer. Any contract terms which unfairly tilt the balance in favour of the trader against the consumer is void. Key terms of a contract must be bold, fair, transparent and balanced - they cannot be buried in the small print of T&Cs.
• The Consumer Protection from Unfair Trading Regulations 2008protects consumers from unfair or misleading trading practices and bans acts and omissions that entice consumers into making a decision they would otherwise not have made.

The consumer dispute experts says: "I take the view that you were misled into making a transactional decision you would not have otherwise made."

What can you do?

Scott says: "You can raise a chargeback with your bank or credit card provider within 120 days of your payment to get a refund. You need to cite 'breach of contract' under the Consumer Rights Act 2015 to enact a chargeback.

"Stress that it was impossible to give 14 days' notice to cancel as the retailer accepted your booking days before you were due to go.

"This constitutes an unfair term of a consumer contract that is not binding on the consumer and voids the contract."

Your bank or credit card provider can reverse the payment and give the retailer an opportunity to present their case.

"Retailers don't like dealing with chargebacks as they are problematic and costly to resolve," Scott says.

Next steps

As a last resort you can take your case to the Small Claims Court in England and Wales - or use the respective legal routes in Scotland and Northern Ireland.

Scott says: "Before you file a claim, send screenshots of the court papers to the company setting your case out and demanding a refund within seven days."

This usually prompts a resolution before you have to actually lodge the claim, Scott says.

"I would also report this firm to Trading Standards," says Scott.

This feature is not intended as financial advice - the aim is to give an overview of the things you should think about. Submit your dilemma or consumer dispute via:

• The form above - you need to leave a phone number or email address so we can contact you for further details;
• Email news@skynews.com with the subject line "Money blog";
• WhatsApp us here.

Morrisons is hoping to increase the number of transactions involving its free loyalty scheme to 70% as it fights to regain its place in the "big four".

The supermarket, which was first overtaken into fourth spot for market share by discount rival Aldi in 2022, has loyalty sales of around 50%.

According to The Grocer, chief executive Rami Baitiéh has told suppliers about the loyalty expansion, and has said he wants it to move from being a "shield" to a "sword" against competitors.

There will be more member-only offers and additional "hyper-personalised" offers following the introducing of My Points Boosters in April. The scheme allowed customers to choose 10 brands that give them extra points.